In the former, although Silver does state “[c]lutch hitting exists, more than previous research would indicate” he goes on to say (2nd to last paragraph in that chapter) that it makes only a marginal difference–2% of his WinEx statistic, to be exact–approximately equivalent to baserunning ability.

The most James really states in his article is that he was previously wrong to say that clutch hitting doesn’t exist; he’s pointing out that the statistics don’t allow him to say one way or the other, leaving him with little more than a gut feeling (from watching Ortiz) that it might.

That said, you are correct that Sussman built a faulty argument on misinterpreting them. But neither has gone so far as to term clutch hitting a key component of a winning season (unless I’ve grossly misread what they’ve written).

What no one talks about is that Ortiz also chokes in the clutch. Think of the 8-2 loss to the Angels a couple weeks ago when it was the bottom of the 9th, two out, and bases loaded. Had “Papi done it again” we could have been within a couple of runs, but he struck out (weakly, I might add). So it’s not always the happy ending. Sussman is, I think, correct to point out that we harbor the good images and forget the bad.

I don’t have a well-formed opinion on the clutch argument, but statements like this undermine your credibility and argument as a whole. In fact, Ortiz hasn’t even been the best player on his own team over the last three years. Since Ortiz is exclusively a hitter, let’s just look at the most comprehensive hitting metric available, OPS+ (which is simply OBP plus SLG relative to the league average). Ortiz has an average OPS+ of 149.67 over the last three years. Manny has an average OPS+ of 156 over the last three years while playing LF. Even without giving Manny any credit for playing LF, it’s clear that he’s contributed more to the Red Sox’s success over the last three years more than Ortiz. Over their careers, Manny has had four seasons (1999-2002, OPS+ between 162 and 190!) that are clearly better than Ortiz’s best season (2005, 161 OPS+). Manny’s 2003 is also better than Ortiz’s 2005 if one gives Manny credit for playing LF. Manny then has five more seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 2004, and 2005) that are clearly as good or better than Ortiz’s second best season (2004, 145 OPS+). Manny’s 1997 is also better than Ortiz’s 2004 if one gives Manny credit for playing LF. In short, Manny’s performance over the last 11 years (1995 through 2005) has been substantially better than Ortiz’s last three years. Over 11 years, Manny’s averaged a 159.82 OPS+, compared to the 149.67 OPS+ Ortiz has posted over the last three years. Manny has also provided some (perhaps small, but some) value from playing left field. If Ortiz’s past three years aren’t the best three years on his own team and if Manny’s performance over the past 11 years blow Ortiz’s past three years out of the water, how can you claim with a straight face that Ortiz’s past three years will be “remembered for the ages”? In short, you should take your own advice and use statistics intelligently. Doing so leads to three main conclusions: (1) Ortiz’s last three seasons have been good but by no means extraordinary; (2) Manny is significantly better than Ortiz; and (3) Manny is yet another great Boston LF (obviously inferior to Williams, but better than Yaz, I think). One of the worst parts of the Ortiz love-fest is that it overshadows how great Manny is.

That’s like my saying Mick Jaggger’s singing will be remembered for the ages and your getting all upset because somehow that devalues the guitar playing of Keith Richards. Or arguing that I can’t say Curt Schilling has been the best post-season pitcher of the last decade because somehow the attendant implication is that he’s had a better career than Roger Clemens. One has nothing to do with the other. Since you “don’t have a well-formed opinion on the clutch argument,” I’d save your arguments for some future thread about the overall value of Manny versus Ortiz. (And if you think Manny Ramirez is a great left-fielder, or if you don’t think we’ll be talking about Ortiz’s run from 2004 through 2006 for years to come, I’d worry more about your own credibility and less about other people’s.)

– Seth