Comments on: More distractions: Manny’s best year ever, the absence of “clutch” in VORP, and more fun with numbers http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/ Media, Baseball, Boston, the Red Sox, Music, Literature, and Mnookins Fri, 05 Dec 2008 13:02:01 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Sox Blog - Chin up http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-134461 Sox Blog - Chin up Mon, 06 Aug 2007 17:50:37 +0000 http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-134461 [...] So is Manny. (Seth Mnookin tries to look on the bright side of things here and here.) [...] [...] So is Manny. (Seth Mnookin tries to look on the bright side of things here and here.) [...]

]]> By: crimsonohsix http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-225 crimsonohsix Tue, 08 Aug 2006 13:12:34 +0000 http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-225 Does MORP use a linear scale for payment/performance? If this is the case, this is clearly unrealistic - it seems pretty clear that the payment/performance scale has some sort of convexity effect to it... (linear increases in performance at the upper end seem to result in exponential increases in payment) Does MORP use a linear scale for payment/performance? If this is the case, this is clearly unrealistic - it seems pretty clear that the payment/performance scale has some sort of convexity effect to it… (linear increases in performance at the upper end seem to result in exponential increases in payment)

]]> By: kml1258 http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-222 kml1258 Mon, 07 Aug 2006 21:20:19 +0000 http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-222 One thing that everyone discounts, why does David get great pitches to hit? Manny may not be as clutch as David, he's not, but there is a reason for that, David bats 3rd and Manny bats 4th. VORP can not factor in that assumption that he gets great pitches to hit because if you walk him, "here comes Manny". We try to statstically analyze each player, but the same thing that makes David clutch, makes Manny hitting behind him even more of a forgotten statistic to analyze. Manny makes David and vice versa. That's why they are the #1 3-4 hitters in the game. One thing that everyone discounts, why does David get great pitches to hit? Manny may not be as clutch as David, he’s not, but there is a reason for that, David bats 3rd and Manny bats 4th. VORP can not factor in that assumption that he gets great pitches to hit because if you walk him, “here comes Manny”. We try to statstically analyze each player, but the same thing that makes David clutch, makes Manny hitting behind him even more of a forgotten statistic to analyze. Manny makes David and vice versa. That’s why they are the #1 3-4 hitters in the game.

]]> By: Sox Blog http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-220 Sox Blog Mon, 07 Aug 2006 19:42:42 +0000 http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-220 <strong>Chin up...</strong> ... Chin up…

…

]]> By: Kevin http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-218 Kevin Mon, 07 Aug 2006 18:15:32 +0000 http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-218 Even if you work in slaries, then there are a number of variables... the previous free agent market, strength of league, strength of schedule, quality of replacement players, injuries... I'm knee-deep in the Historical Baseball Abstract (new ed) right now, and I feel like win shares tries to be the closest thing there is to the stat we're shooting at... but even that seems a bit odd. If you ask me who had the most to do with the success of the 1998 Yankees, I'd say Jeter, but he's 2 behind Bernie Williams (somewhere in the family of 26-28) who led the team. Even if you work in slaries, then there are a number of variables… the previous free agent market, strength of league, strength of schedule, quality of replacement players, injuries…

I’m knee-deep in the Historical Baseball Abstract (new ed) right now, and I feel like win shares tries to be the closest thing there is to the stat we’re shooting at… but even that seems a bit odd.

If you ask me who had the most to do with the success of the 1998 Yankees, I’d say Jeter, but he’s 2 behind Bernie Williams (somewhere in the family of 26-28) who led the team.

]]> By: yerfatma http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-217 yerfatma Mon, 07 Aug 2006 17:03:13 +0000 http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-217 Yeah, I'll buy that, but I think without a salary cap it's kind of a black hole of analysis. Should we just look at VORP/salary or do we also have to consider the total team payroll (or revenue stream)? The Red Sox' flexibility is very different from the Kansas City Royals (at least given the fake set of restrictions some billionaire owners operate under). Without a hard cap or an honest and accurate account of total revenues derived from the on-field product, you're going to develop a very percise metric that doesn't measure anything real. Yeah, I’ll buy that, but I think without a salary cap it’s kind of a black hole of analysis. Should we just look at VORP/salary or do we also have to consider the total team payroll (or revenue stream)? The Red Sox’ flexibility is very different from the Kansas City Royals (at least given the fake set of restrictions some billionaire owners operate under). Without a hard cap or an honest and accurate account of total revenues derived from the on-field product, you’re going to develop a very percise metric that doesn’t measure anything real.

]]> By: yerfatma http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-216 yerfatma Mon, 07 Aug 2006 15:51:11 +0000 http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2006/08/07/more-distractions-mannys-best-year-ever-the-absence-of-clutch-in-vorp-and-more-fun-with-numbers/#comment-216 <i>the assumption that the replacement for a player will be a scrub</i> Without arguing one way or the other for VORP, why is this a problem? It's only useful as a yardstick if you have a consistent base. Isn't VORP a metric to measure one starting LF against another, not a way to measure which team has a better set of players who can man the LF position? And I don't get "Another thing VORP doesn’t into account is bang for the buck"; neither does OPS, OPS+, BA, etc. But if you divide any of them by the player's annual salary*, you have the metric you're looking for. I guess you're focusing on the "Value" in the name, but it seems like asking a lot of one measurement. * Which is a sunk cost by the time you can measure the player's performance against it. Handy for deciding whether to resign a player, but not meaningful in season unless you like to grind the "Players are overpaid" axe. <i>Fair enough (and I fixed the omission of "take"). But projected VORP is one way to measure whether or not it makes sense to trade for, sign, or trade away a player, and too often that's looked at in a vacuum. When comparing, say, Jon Lester to Andruw Jones, one point of comparison is the specific needs of a team. Another is their relative values. And a third is their costs, and what those costs will mean for a team's flexibility moving forward. By looking at value, I wasn't trying to denigrate VORP so much as I was trying to take a look at what it can and can't tell us. Finally, while VORP is a way to measure players as compared to other players at their positions, it's also used as a kind of catch-all stat vis a vis arguments for MVP, etc. -- Seth</i> the assumption that the replacement for a player will be a scrub

Without arguing one way or the other for VORP, why is this a problem? It’s only useful as a yardstick if you have a consistent base. Isn’t VORP a metric to measure one starting LF against another, not a way to measure which team has a better set of players who can man the LF position? And I don’t get “Another thing VORP doesn’t into account is bang for the buck”; neither does OPS, OPS+, BA, etc. But if you divide any of them by the player’s annual salary*, you have the metric you’re looking for. I guess you’re focusing on the “Value” in the name, but it seems like asking a lot of one measurement.

* Which is a sunk cost by the time you can measure the player’s performance against it. Handy for deciding whether to resign a player, but not meaningful in season unless you like to grind the “Players are overpaid” axe.

Fair enough (and I fixed the omission of “take”). But projected VORP is one way to measure whether or not it makes sense to trade for, sign, or trade away a player, and too often that’s looked at in a vacuum. When comparing, say, Jon Lester to Andruw Jones, one point of comparison is the specific needs of a team. Another is their relative values. And a third is their costs, and what those costs will mean for a team’s flexibility moving forward. By looking at value, I wasn’t trying to denigrate VORP so much as I was trying to take a look at what it can and can’t tell us.

Finally, while VORP is a way to measure players as compared to other players at their positions, it’s also used as a kind of catch-all stat vis a vis arguments for MVP, etc.

– Seth

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