Monthly Archive for November, 2006

The return of the original Dirt Dog and more speculation that will likely be made irrelevant by tomorrow’s speculation

Published
by
Seth Mnookin
on November 30, 2006
in 2006 Hot Stove Season, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Manny Ramirez, Peter Gammons, Steve Phillips and Trot Nixon
. 12 Comments

It’s three weeks into the free agency season…and when all’s said and done, here’s what we know about the 2007 roster:

Curt Schilling will be a starting pitcher
Jason Varitek will be the catcher
David Ortiz will be the DH
Jonathan Papelbon will be on the roster

And that’s it. No joke: there are no other untouchables. Youk? Pedroia? Hansen? For the right deal, they could all go. Wily Mo and Coco? Make an offer. Mike Lowell? His $9 mil price tag might seem cheap in comparison to Juan Pierre’s deal, but he could be packing his bags, too.

There are some intriguing possibilities out there, though, at least one of which hasn’t been much discussed, and that’s the possibility that Trot Nixon ends up back in Boston on a one-year deal. Said possibility was raised by Peter Gammons — an unabashed Nixon fan and someone with more than his share of confidantes in the Red Sox front office — when Gammo said Nixon could still accept arbitration from the Sox and end up back in Boston on something akin to a one-year, $7 million deal. In a frenzied free agent market, it’s somewhat shocking how little interest there’s been in the original Dirt Dog: this is, after all, a guy who’s only 33 and had a .974 OPS in 2003. Of course, since then his power has pretty much gone out the window, and he seems more fragile than J.D. Drew…but shit, he still looks like he’d be a decent option for some team out there.

If Trot does end up back in Boston and if Manny does end up somewhere else and if the Sox do end up signing Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew and Matsuzaka — a whole mess of ifs, I know — we could be looking at something like this:

Tek - C
Youk - 1st
Pedroia - 2nd
Lowell - 3rd
Lugo - SS
WMP - left
J.D. Drew - right/center
Coco - right/center
Ortiz - DH

Trot - right/left supersub

Schilling — SP
Matsuzaka — SP
Beckett — SP
Papelbon — SP
Wakefield — SP

Of course, that’s not taking into account who’d come to Boston in return for #24. And that’s sure to be something spicy.

All pure speculation. But a lot better than some of the speculation out there. Like that of Steve Phillips, whose entire career on ESPN has been devoted to showing the world why he no longer has a job as a major league GM. He said — in public! — that Barry Bonds might end up patroling left field.

This makes perfect sense. Except that:
* Bonds has said the whole city of Boston is full of racist jerks and he’d never play here
* The Sox would be getting someone who’s arguably the only person in baseball who could be more of a distraction that Manny
* His barcalounger wouldn’t fit in the Sox’s clubhouse
* He’s a near-cripple
* He’d bring a circus at a time when Theo Epstein has shown a consistent interest in reducing the circus-like atmosphere at Fenway.

Tune in tomorrow, when Phillips explains why Nomar might be included in the Dodgers’ proposed deal for Manny.

There’s more smoke and mirrors in this Globe piece from Gordo, although it’s not Edes’s fault: he’s just reporting the disinformation coming from various MLB execs. But the explanations offered up for why Manny wouldn’t want to go to San Diego — he’s not familiar with NL pitchers, the big dimensions of Petco would be bad for his power numbers, the Padres wouldn’t want a $20 mil a year guy — seem pretty silly. It’s hard to conceive of Manny being afraid of any pitcher, anywhere. And anyone who’s seen him plant a ball on the pike knows he’s not too concerned with the dimensions of whatever field he ends up playing on.

“Eso no es problema,” dijo Ortiz

Published
by
Seth Mnookin
on November 29, 2006
in 2006 Hot Stove Season, David Ortiz, Making flippy floppy and Manny Ramirez
. 9 Comments

One of the many mistakes I made in high school was taking French — which has come in handy exactly never — instead of Spanish. So I can’t be sure that I’m reading this right, but I’m pretty sure that “eso no es problema” can be translated as, “It won’t be a problem.” That is, David Ortiz told El Diario that it wouldn’t be a problem is Manny Ramirez weren’t on the Red Sox next year.

(I’m actually more confident in my translation than in Babelfish’s. Here are some selections from their attempt at deciphering the piece:

“‘Manny is a key card in the equipment, but… I have been developed all my single life and single it is necessary to battle, which is is that to throw pálante’, it indicated.
Ortiz and the Ramirez form one of the more frightful offensive pairs of the baseball of the Great Leagues and the year last with the Red Averages they added towed quadrangular 89 and 239. …
‘that is Already problems between Manny and the equipment of Boston, but we will see in what it finishes. They finish almost always with Manny in the equipment, we hoped that she happens thus ‘, added.”

Indeed. Who doesn’t hope it finish with Manny in the equipment? But I digress…)

Ortiz’s statements seem to offer even more evidence that Manny is likely on his way out; I can’t imagine Papi hasn’t been in touch with both the team and with his partner in the most frightful offensive pair of the Great Leagues. Lots of press reports seem to indicate this as well: ESPN’s Buster Olney reports the chances of the Sox dealing Ramirez are a 9 out of 10 (it was Olney who tipped me off to the El Diario piece); the Globe’s Gordon Edes has some specifics, mentioning San Diego’s Scott Linebrick, Jack Peavy, and Adrian Gonzalez and the Mariners’ Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson as possible bounty; while the Herald’s Michael Silverman raises the possibility that the Sox are responding to Manny’s latest trade requests by doing some reverse-psychology jujitsu, fermenting all this “activity on the Ramirez trade front” as a “good-faith gesture to keep Manny happy.” (Believe me, it’s not the craziest notion in the world.)

I’ve had some more thoughts since yesterday, when I said I was stumped as to why the Sox would consider trading Ramirez and signing J.D. Drew (with whom the Sox are apparently on the verge of finalizing a 4- to 5-year deal for $14 million per), and, in my usual flip-floppy way, I think I’ve come around to why some sort of trade does make sense, or at least is, at this point, unavoidable. (My inability to take a position and stick to it is one reason I’ll never be a successful politician, although arguably not as a big of one as my sordid past). But that’ll have to wait for later…

Rahm Emanuel calls Hillary a dyke…or maybe just a nutjob*

Published
by
Seth Mnookin
on November 28, 2006
in Democrats, Hillary Clinton and Rahm Emanuel
. 4 Comments

Last night Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel — who’s vying with his brother for the mantle of the pushiest Emanuel — turned in a squeamishly embarrassing performance on the Daily Show. The gem of the evening came when Emanuel joined the Christian Action Network, the National Enquirer, and Ed Klein in insinuating or claiming that Hillary Clinton is a lesbian. At the end of Emanuel’s extended (and tortured) riff about Bush’s attempts to compare himself with FDR, Stewart joked that the Democrats’ plan seemed to be exhuming the 32nd president, to which Emanuel replied:

“Well, Hillary’s helping us with the Eleanor part.”

Classy! Even Stewart seemed taken aback; he quickly told Emanuel to “settle down.” (You can watch the clip for yourself; Emanuel’s quote comes with about 25 second remaining in the first excerpt.) If there’s one thing that can help the Republicans overcome Bush’s 32 percent job approval rating, it’s nasty infighting among the Democrats!

* As several readers have pointed out, it’s possible that Rahm was simply making fun of the decade-old stories about Hillary channeling Eleanor from the White House, for which Hillary endured a whole boatload of mockery. If that was Rahm’s intention, he’s a crappy comedian and isn’t good at drawing parallels: if you actually exhumed FDR, he’d need a real-life wife, not some silly old spirit! Either way, it’s a good thing the junior senator from New York took Eleanor’s advice and grew “skin as thick as a rhinoceros”…because she’s getting love from every corner.

Grant Hill learns about the business side of sports, staying injury free from Feeding the Monster

Published
by
Seth Mnookin
on November 28, 2006
in Bollywood and Romenesko
. 4 Comments

Ok, fine, that second part isn’t true…but Hill is reading Feeding the Monster because he wants to learn about the business side of sports. Hill hasn’t requested a personalized, signed bookplate…but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t! It makes a great holiday present for your loved ones and in-laws.

Today in Matsuzaka land: an offer has been made…but is it good that we know?

Published
by
Seth Mnookin
on November 28, 2006
in 2006 Hot Stove Season, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Scott Boras
. 1 Comment

In other news, Larry Lucchino, currently eating sushi in Japan, says the Sox have made a formal offer to Matsuzaka and his cuddly agent, Scott Boras. I don’t imagine the contract talks will go seamlessly — no talks with Boras ever do — but it does seem as if the signs point to D-Mat (or Monster, or Mini-Monster, or whatever your nickname of choice happens to be) will end up a Red Sock (what is the singular, anyway?) next year. Still, I can’t help but wonder why Lucchino went public with the offer. It puts Boras and Matsuzaka in a tough position — at this point, it would be bad for everyone if Daisuke was forced to pitch for the Seibu Lions next year — and goes against the recent Sox policy of negotiating deals in private. Lucchino has been accused of throwing a wrench into deals by speaking to the press before; is this a bland public statement? Or a harbinger of what’s to come?

The confusing saga of Manny and J.D.

Published
by
Seth Mnookin
on November 28, 2006
in 2006 Hot Stove Season, J.D. Drew and Manny Ramirez
. 10 Comments

Unless Manny is traded before the winter meetings, we can expect several more days of feverish speculation on whether or not the best right-handed hitter of his generation will be playing in Boston next year. Right now, both the local and national media are saying Manny won’t be patrolling left field at Fenway come April; the Globe’s Gordon Edes reports that while talks with AL teams have cooled off, the Sox are deep in discussion with the Padres, Giants, and Dodgers, while the Herald’s Michael Silverman says the Angels and the Rangers are still the frontrunners in the Manny sweepstakes.

Regardless of where he ends up, if Manny isn’t batting behind Papi next year, there’s sure to be outcry among the natives. And without knowing anything more than your average schmuck on the street (or at least your average schmuck on the street who spent a year living with the team), color me confused. Back in June, I explained why I thought this year’s anemic free agent market meant it was more likely that Manny would stay in Boston, a sentiment which was later echoed to me by Red Sox execs. And even if Manny is threatening, as he has many times over the past five years, to shut it down, history would seem to indicate the likelihood of that happening being close to nil. Whatever happened last year could make this offseason different, but until I hear otherwise, it’s hard for me to see why you’d jettison a player who now seems like a relative bargain…especially if the offensive replacement has a healthy history of not being healthy. (If some variation of these deals do go down, it’ll be a gutsy move by the Sox: if Manny came back to Boston in ‘07 and performed below expectations, the outcry wouldn’t be nearly as severe as if Manny left and smacked the shit out of the ball…especially if nominal replacement J.D. Drew had a tough acclimation period in Boston.)

Big Mac: Worthy of the Hall? I think not…and here’s why

Published
by
Seth Mnookin
on November 28, 2006
in Mark McGwire and Steroids
. 6 Comments

For all the sturm und drang surrounding this year’s voting, the Hall of Fame has always had its share of ridiculous members. Two players — Johnny Evers and Joe Tinker–were inducted for no other reason than the fact that their names were included in a popular ditty. (Hell, even Murray Chass has been honored by the Hall.)

Still, this year’s voting will be especially interesting. Mark McGwire, who was a lock for a first balloter as recently as two years ago, now looks like he won’t make it in. (I’d bet he gets even less votes than Jim Rice.) This, of course, is because pretty much the entire world assumes McGwire’s transformation from Dave Kingman to Babe Ruth was chemically enhanced.

I certainly understand that school of thought. I also understand other sides to the issue. Put aside the fact that steroids are illegal — reason enough to consider steroids differently from other performance enhancing medical options, but stick with me for the sake of argument. How are steroids different from, say, Lasik eye surgery? Or Tommy John surgery? Don’t you think there are plenty of guys from any previous era that could have had their careers prolonged by a decade or more if they’d had these options available to them? And wouldn’t at least some of these guys have made it into the Hall?

What’s more, if McGwire — who has never tested positive — doesn’t get your hypothetical vote, how do you evaluate other players of what’s already known as the steroid era? Does this affect how you think about guys like Roger Clemens, who’ve been the subject of persistent rumors? Or, for that matter, Barry Bonds?

I’ve thought about this for a while, and have settled on a doctrine articulated to me by the Kansas City Star’s Joe Posnanski (for my money, perhaps the best baseball columnist in the country). If I had a vote — and there’s absolutely no danger of that ever happening — I’d vote for guys like Clemens, and even Bonds, because they seem like Hall of Fame-caliber players regardless of whether or not they used steroids. (If it were ever established definitively that a player used, said player would not get my vote, because ‘roid use in the absence of medical necessity, unlike Lasik and Tommy John surgery, is illegal.) And I wouldn’t vote for guys like McGwire, who is the very model of a player who would never have even sniffed the Hall were it not for a remarkable mid-career surge that seems, on top of all of the other anecdotal evidence, to be the result of a healthy regimen of PEDs.

It’s an imprecise formula, to be sure. But I’m not sure if I can think of another one that makes any more sense.