They finished in 3rd place — behind the Blue Jays for crying out loud.

When it comes to sports, the outcome IS the only thing that matters, unless you’re dealing with your son’s Little League team.

Consider these numbers:

2005 (AL) ERA 4.52
HRA 22

2005 (AL) vs. Left
HRA 17
AVE .288
SLG .488
OBP .343
OPS .831

2006 (NL) vs. Left
HRA 22
AVE .282
SLG .498
OBP .340
OPS .838

Overall in ‘06 he let up 31 HR…..in the NL (World Series or no World Series it is an inferior league). Just to put that in perspective that is 5 HR less that Beckett let up this past season in the AL.

Basically the guy was ineffective against lefties in ‘05 and then went to a weaker hitting league and achieved similar results. It is not a leap of faith to say that he would have had worse numbers had he stayed. The Yankees have some fearsome left handed batters by the way (Giambi, Cano, Matsui, Abreu).

Now I always liked Arroyo. He has guts and a rubber arm but if I have the opportunity to acquire a guy with 30-35 HR potential for a 4th or 5th starter, I’ll take it every time.

He has become the poster boy in the effort to discredit Epstein. I just don’t think people look at the situation objectively.

1) Letting go Cabrera and picking up Renteria. In hindsight this move indicates a post-championship ‘hey we can do anything now’ euphoria. Cabrera had proven himself to be a solid player on defence and offence and even more, a guy with a lot of self-confidence who thrived on the energy of Boston. Of course we know how Renteria worked out.

2) The Mirabelli to and from San Diego fiasco. Giving up Bard and Meredith to get him back in a moment of pure panic. I’m sure Theo would agree this was just an awful move.

3) Letting Mike Myers go. They said we didn’t need a lefty one–or-two batter specialist. Then it’s oh oh, we do need a lefty and so trade David Riske for Javier Lopez. Meanwhile the Yankees have Myers to get out David Ortiz. That was all very weird.

As for Arroyo…well this one is still yet to be proven one way or the other. But the fact is they gave up a young, relatively cheap pitcher who had won 14 games, pitched 205 innings and could start or relieve on notice. Why? Because we had ‘more than enough’ pitching. Curt Schilling pointed out the folly of this thinking later. And Wily Mo? Yes he’s a work in progress but I fear he may not have time to progress in Boston. He hit some balls incredibly hard, but in key situations he often looked like an easy strikeout. And his glove work is a little frightening. I hope it works out, believe me.

I think the ‘National League sucks’ thing is a a cyclical blip. Sort of like how Baltimore gave us fits in 2004 and 2005 but we beat them silly in 2006 with a worse team. It’ll probably shift back the other way before you know it. St. Louis taking out Detroit in 5 might signal the start of that. Please let’s not kid ourselves, Arroyo can pitch.

Arroyo - a point that has been beaten to death this season is the disparity between the AL and NL. When discussing Arroyo this seems to be ignored. The guy is a 4th or 5th starter in the AL and it seemed as if he was regressing in ‘05. Basically he could not get lefties out. Look up the stats. Wily Mo is a work in progress but this is a gamble that I would take again given the chance. Sure this move came back to bite us due to injuries but it wouldn’t have saved the season.

Beckett - Two of the most respected names in the Baseball (Bobby Cox & Peter Gammons) predicted that Beckett would win the AL Cy Young this past season. We all know how that worked out but I believe that we have seen the best of Beckett yet. On the flip side see the Arroyo comment. Does Anibel Sanchez experience as much success in the AL East? Does Hanley Ramirez have a ROY year in Boston with a horde of writers and talk show personalities dying to tag him with a name like “Rent-a-Wreck”? Baseball America itself pointed out that he has all of the tools but has yet to dominate in the minors.

Damon - I guess some people are claiming Damon is a bargain now that the new economics are in place. He did have a really good year last year. But Pedro had a really good year in his first season in NY too. I think letting him go wasn’t as much based on his asking price but the length of his contract. I still think the Sox will be proven right on this one.

Crisp - this is a tough one to defend because I don’t see him as a leadoff guy even when healthy. That being said, I think last year was a lost year for this guy. We haven’t seen his best yet. People can talk about Marte all they want but I’d like to see a full season before I start calling him a perennial All-Star.

If somebody is going to claim that they made mistakes, I’d like to hear a list of REALISTIC alternative moves that they could have made last season that would have won them more than 85 games. Tony Maz gave Theo an “F” for the season because he did not make a deadline deal to keep the Sox in it. Tony, what was that deal that he could have made? The Andruw Jones/Oswalt rumor was a myth. The Braves wanted not only Crisp and Hansen but also Lester. Once they asked for Lester the Sox rightly pulled the plug.

I totally agree with this….Decisions like letting Pedro go look good and bad at different points over time, but at the time of the decision, after weighing the relative likelihood and risks of each outcome, the decision that was made was the correct one…that doesn’t always mean that it was the right one…but it was the “best” one given all the information at hand.

For a great book at strategic decision making…check out Essence of Decision.

Is the former Treasury Secretary related to Christoher Robin and Pooh?

If you don’t want to be thought of as a schill (pun discovered and not changed) for management, shouldn’t you just keep your natural optimism to yourself? But, substantively, I agree with you, both that the Sox had very bad luck this season and that this front-office is doing a good job and is a credit to the organization.

Don’t you know, you make your own luck! If Theo didn’t cause Papi’s heart problems by frightening him, it must have been because Theo was thinking negative thoughts, or casting a negative aura over Yawkey Way, or he failed to anticipate that Papi could have heart problems so he should have kept Roberto Petegine at Pawtucket another year.