Comments on: $51.1 million: it boggles the mind

By: HFXBOB

HFXBOB — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 16:38:04 +0000

crimsonohsix:

Clemens’ 2006 contract was $22 million pro-rated over the number of games he played.

By: Ogie Oglethorpe

Ogie Oglethorpe — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 12:57:19 +0000

Here is something from today’s Herald to consider for everybody who hails Arroyo as the biggest gaff that the Red Sox front office has made:

Tomo Ohka has similar career numbers to Bronson Arroyo. He is 48-58 with a 4.04 ERA, 174 starts and a 2.06 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Arroyo is 47-44 with a 4.21 ERA, 161 starts and a 2.17 ratio. Two other AL East clubs as well as a number of NL teams also have inquired about Ohka, Masteralexis said.

He actually has a better career ERA…

By: maineiac

maineiac — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 02:29:27 +0000

The part that is left out of much of the math of this deal is the potential for Red Sox marketing in Japan. If NESN can land a rebroadcasting contract, etc. because of Dice-K, the $51.1 could be partially or maybe even totally eroded through these new revenues. This scenario is only possible by landing a Japanese superstar. If you sign Zito or even Clemens, the Red Sox are NOT entering into a new revenue market. They are stuck with the same ole revenue stream and the Sox’s only option is to squeeze more out of us. I think the hit to the team is much less than the sum of the contract and bidding rights.

The important converse to this is that the Yankees have already saturated the Japanese market and their posting fee would truely be addititive to whatever contract Mr. Boras got out of them. Making what they pay similar to the math used by crimsonohsix.

At a minimum, the difference between the Red Sox’s current marketing in Japan and their possible marketing opportunities versus the Yankee’s current and hypothetical if they got Dice-K, represents the $20 million diffence in the two teams’ bids. With this considered, the Yankees overbid by as much if not more than the Red Sox.

i.e.,
Red Sox Bidding Fee + Dice-K Contract - Japanese Marketing Yen

By: crimsonohsix

crimsonohsix — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 20:46:45 +0000

“By having exclusive rights to negotiate with him, Theo et al can play hardball with Boras and maybe get this kid for around $10 million per year (which seems to be their favorite number lately)”

Even if they get the kid for 4 years at $10 million per year, they are effectively paying $91.1MM/4 = $22.5 million per year for him. That’s over $4.5 million/year more than the Astros paid for Clemens in his historic 2005 contract.

I’m usually a huge defender of this front office’s moves. But unless they just bid $51.1MM with absolutely no intention of signing him (which is entirely possible), how does this move make any sense?

By: MightyLost

MightyLost — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 20:19:55 +0000

The previous 4 commenters were right on the money. One other way to look at the posting fee is by looking at the money they didn’t spend over the last few years. They saved around $35 million over 4 years by signing Crisp instead of Damon and saved millions more (and prospects) by not pulling off the Abreu trade. One could argue they dodged an expensive bullet with Pedro too. Neither Damon, Abreu or Pedro would have saved the ‘06 season. So subtract all that money they saved from the posting fee and it’s really doesn’t seem that extravagant. We’re meant to believe that for the Red Sox to have been “consistent” they should have signed Pedro and Damon, traded for Abreu *and* bid 51m for Matsuzaka and declared their position as Evil Uber Empire #2, or done none at all and embraced their “under dog” status. Yet I think their approach *has* been consistent. Spend money on talented young players when the opportunity is unique and don’t spend money on good but older talent when there are cheaper, younger options available.

By: tinisoli

tinisoli — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 19:09:10 +0000

I love this move. If Daisuke were just another MLB free agent, available to any of the big-spending teams, it’s conceivable that he’d command $15 million per year over 4 years. By having exclusive rights to negotiate with him, Theo et al can play hardball with Boras and maybe get this kid for around $10 million per year (which seems to be their favorite number lately). Right now, the worst-case scenario is they keep other teams from getting hold of this talent this time around, with no real money having been spent. The best-case is he costs them a Beckett-like sum each year for the next half decade, they eat the one-time cost of $51.1 million, and the expansion into Asia works wonders for their marketing efforts, possibly negating some of that initial cost. Best of all, by paying exorbitantly for the bid rather than the actual contract, they avoid getting nearer to the luxury tax threshold. Seems like a no-brainer.

As for the losing the title of “underdog,” it’s time we all grew up and realized that we can’t have our cake and eat it too. If the Sox were to trim their payroll just to retain (or regain) their membership in the underdog/non-Yankees club it would be derided throughout Red Sox Nation as “cut and run” capitulation and a betrayal of the fans who pack Fenway’s cramped, overpriced seats year after year. Sure, maybe talent and luck could still get a cheaper Sox club to the Series every once in a while, but I certainly prefer the idea of getting to the playoffs 8 out of 10 years and having a shot at the Series in any given season.

By: gary

gary — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 18:57:09 +0000

I’m a big fan of your book (and blog) Seth, but I think you missed the mark on this one, and agree with much of the first two comments

I’m not sure how you can look at this single deal and suddenly conclue the sox are on the level of the yankees. Even at number two we were somewhere in the ballpark of 80 million below ny in spending. If a year or two from now if the sox are still 50 to 80 million below ny, how can you say there’s no difference?

I think the theo was stung by the notion that he didn’t do enough at the trading deadline, and this is the result. But it doesn’t mean this isn’t a blip on the radar.

Pitching is the key and becoming rarer by the year. You can’t compare this to letting damon go. As for arroyo, you say he’s a ‘proven pitcher’. I think you forgot the word ‘mediocre’ between those two words (at least in the AL). The sox aren’t betting on Matsuzaka to be a mediocre pitcher. They’re counting on him to be an ace. If he’s the next arroyo, the deal is a bad one regardless.

I’m not saying I have full confidence in this deal, but I understand why they pulled the trigger. They’re taking a chance, but the upside could be huge, and if they had lost out to ny again, hell would have been the result