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	<title>Comments on: If not now, when?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/</link>
	<description>Media, Baseball, Boston, the Red Sox, Music, Literature, and Mnookins</description>
	<pubDate>Fri, 29 Aug 2008 19:20:40 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: rog</title>
		<link>http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-239194</link>
		<dc:creator>rog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Oct 2007 14:50:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-239194</guid>
		<description>&lt;/b&gt;There, I think I got the end tag.

Anybody know if the Sox can keep Gagne off the roster for the World Series and add Tavarez or someone else?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There, I think I got the end tag.</p>
<p>Anybody know if the Sox can keep Gagne off the roster for the World Series and add Tavarez or someone else?</p>
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		<title>By: Gee</title>
		<link>http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-236018</link>
		<dc:creator>Gee</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Oct 2007 02:10:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-236018</guid>
		<description>Sorry.  Screwed up the tags, obviously.  But you get the point.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry.  Screwed up the tags, obviously.  But you get the point.</p>
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		<title>By: Gee</title>
		<link>http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-236013</link>
		<dc:creator>Gee</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Oct 2007 02:08:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-236013</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Even if Sabathia gets excited again in the first game of this series and walks some batters, &lt;b&gt;he should be able to keep the score down,/b&#62; .... The way these things go, on the other hand, the teams could start with a slugfest. &lt;b&gt;But not likely.&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/i&gt;

Good 'ol Murray.  We're only in the 8th inning of game one, and he's already wrong.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Even if Sabathia gets excited again in the first game of this series and walks some batters, <b>he should be able to keep the score down,/b&gt; &#8230;. The way these things go, on the other hand, the teams could start with a slugfest. </b><b>But not likely.</b></i></p>
<p>Good &#8216;ol Murray.  We&#8217;re only in the 8th inning of game one, and he&#8217;s already wrong.</p>
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		<title>By: Shalomar</title>
		<link>http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-235363</link>
		<dc:creator>Shalomar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Oct 2007 16:46:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-235363</guid>
		<description>Isn't this level of equivocating unseemly for a columnist? 

"Because of the pitching, the series could be low scoring. Even if Sabathia gets excited again in the first game of this series and walks some batters, he should be able to keep the score down. Beckett, too, cannot be expected to allow too many runs.

The way these things go, on the other hand, the teams could start with a slugfest. But not likely." 
Murray Chass, Oct 12, NY Times.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Isn&#8217;t this level of equivocating unseemly for a columnist? </p>
<p>&#8220;Because of the pitching, the series could be low scoring. Even if Sabathia gets excited again in the first game of this series and walks some batters, he should be able to keep the score down. Beckett, too, cannot be expected to allow too many runs.</p>
<p>The way these things go, on the other hand, the teams could start with a slugfest. But not likely.&#8221;<br />
Murray Chass, Oct 12, NY Times.</p>
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		<title>By: Mr. Furious</title>
		<link>http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-233830</link>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Furious</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Oct 2007 20:06:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-233830</guid>
		<description>Very good point johnw. I've often maintained that often the "save" is earned in the 7th or 8th, and not the 9th. Even though that's where the stat is handed over.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Very good point johnw. I&#8217;ve often maintained that often the &#8220;save&#8221; is earned in the 7th or 8th, and not the 9th. Even though that&#8217;s where the stat is handed over.</p>
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		<title>By: johnw</title>
		<link>http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-233590</link>
		<dc:creator>johnw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Oct 2007 15:45:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-233590</guid>
		<description>"If there’s been a team that good with a closer that imminently hittable, I don’t think I know what it is…" 

How about the 2006 Detroit Tigers and their "ace" Todd Jones? He and Borowski are almost exactly the same pitcher. 

Indeed, the Tigers and the Indians used a similar blueprint for building a bullpen. I believe it's a modified version of the "discredited" Bill James theory: use your best relievers in the most crucial situations, whether in the 6th inning or the 9th. James was slammed for (a) going against common practice, and (b) creating uncertainty in the bullpen due to the lack of defined roles. I've never bought (a), but thought there was some validity to (b). 

The modified James bullpen puts the best arms in setup roles (the Rafaels in Cleveland, Rodney and Zumaya in Detroit), giving them a pretty good sense of how and when they will be used, and sets aside the 9th inning for a certain type of pitcher: a veteran reliever who's accustomed to late-inning pressure. Cleveland's failed 2006 experiment with Fausto Carmona -- he clearly has top-shelf stuff, but he utterly gagged as a closer -- indicates that there is truth to the notion that the 9th inning is a different animal. Whatever you think of Todd Jones's stuff, there's no question he is completely familiar with pitching in the 9th. You give your closer a clean start in a single inning, and he's very likely to come through with a save. 

I'm not sayin' I'd trade Papelbon for Jones, or Rivera for Borowski... but I am saying there appears to be another way to build a championship-quality bullpen.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;If there’s been a team that good with a closer that imminently hittable, I don’t think I know what it is…&#8221; </p>
<p>How about the 2006 Detroit Tigers and their &#8220;ace&#8221; Todd Jones? He and Borowski are almost exactly the same pitcher. </p>
<p>Indeed, the Tigers and the Indians used a similar blueprint for building a bullpen. I believe it&#8217;s a modified version of the &#8220;discredited&#8221; Bill James theory: use your best relievers in the most crucial situations, whether in the 6th inning or the 9th. James was slammed for (a) going against common practice, and (b) creating uncertainty in the bullpen due to the lack of defined roles. I&#8217;ve never bought (a), but thought there was some validity to (b). </p>
<p>The modified James bullpen puts the best arms in setup roles (the Rafaels in Cleveland, Rodney and Zumaya in Detroit), giving them a pretty good sense of how and when they will be used, and sets aside the 9th inning for a certain type of pitcher: a veteran reliever who&#8217;s accustomed to late-inning pressure. Cleveland&#8217;s failed 2006 experiment with Fausto Carmona &#8212; he clearly has top-shelf stuff, but he utterly gagged as a closer &#8212; indicates that there is truth to the notion that the 9th inning is a different animal. Whatever you think of Todd Jones&#8217;s stuff, there&#8217;s no question he is completely familiar with pitching in the 9th. You give your closer a clean start in a single inning, and he&#8217;s very likely to come through with a save. </p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sayin&#8217; I&#8217;d trade Papelbon for Jones, or Rivera for Borowski&#8230; but I am saying there appears to be another way to build a championship-quality bullpen.</p>
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		<title>By: yerfatma</title>
		<link>http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/10/10/if-not-now-when/#comment-233395</link>
		<dc:creator>yerfatma</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Oct 2007 12:52:28 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>moctavio, here's hoping you get to see two wins.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>moctavio, here&#8217;s hoping you get to see two wins.</p>
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